Category: News

A real estate analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN) says the fact that Calgary’s housing prices aren’t budging much shouldn’t come as a shock. “The current Calgary real estate market conditions are disappointing but unsurprising,” said Don Campbell, senior real estate analyst with REIN.

• Calgary housing prices hold firm despite weak energy prices
• ​Oil slump leads to more apartment vacancies in Alberta, Saskatchewan
• Calgary has highest rent out of major Canadian cities, finds report
• Calgary home sales plummet since last August

The oil price slide is in its 15th month after all, he says. Previous forecasts stated prices would begin to slide from November 2015 to February 2016 amid mixed signals in the market.

“The drop in oil prices, which brought layoffs and lower consumer confidence, have been the largest factor in today’s market conditions, prices held steady due to a lack of real desperation to sell,” said Campbell.

Uncertainty all around

Add to the mix, Campbell says, is the uncertainty from Rachel Notley’s newly-elected government regarding taxes, regulation, or an economic strategy.

“These two main factors have pushed the listings up substantially while keeping the buyers on the sidelines,” he said.

According to Calgary MLS, the current detached home listings in September were 3,012 — or 17 per cent more — compared to the same period last year. Although the Calgary Real Estate Board reports total residential sales in the city were 1,448 units in September, well below typical activity levels for this time of year.

Year-to-date Calgary sales remained below both the five- and 10-year averages.

But Campbell says two other major factors are keeping a cap on housing prices — the growing population in the region before oil prices went south and the rental market.

“These new citizens have supported both the housing resale market as well as the rental market,” he said, adding this is directly connected to the second factor — high rents and low vacancy rates in the region.

He suggests that if homeowners were thinking of selling their home but wanted to stay in the city, when they did the math, they discovered it was cheaper to stay put.

“This lack of next home lowered the motivation level of those who listed their property and thus many were willing to stand firm on their price which in turn stabilized the average sale price.”

2016 predictions

But Campbell says to expect even lower housing prices to emerge with increased motivation from November to February with more vacancies but oil prices still remaining low.

Looking into 2016, Campbell says mixed signals will continue if oil prices stay consistently below $50 and there’s no pipeline announcement — likely resulting in more downward housing prices, plus a big dive in demand for luxury homes.

He expects vacancy rates will begin to move up, which could bring rental rates down.

“This will free up the ability for more people who have listed their property to make a move into the rental market while they await more surety.”

The Streamlife Four Step P.L.A.N. to Get Organized. P.L.A.N. stands for Prioritize, Liberate, Arrange and Nurture. Here we’ll focus on the two middle steps to reclaim calm and control in your environment.

1. Liberate

Take a look at what’s piling up. Is it clothing, books, media, food? Gather like items and take them to where you intend to store them. You’ll now have books near your bookshelves, clothes close to your closet, and food near the pantry. There likely won’t be room for everything, so now it’s time to edit.
Sort out the things that no longer inspire or fit you, or are too worn or damaged to be used or repaired, and give yourself permission to let them go. That includes new gifts that just don’t suit you or your current lifestyle. Gather receipts and exchange them or pass them on to someone who will appreciate them. You’ll want to edit down to close to the volume of items that can fit in your space comfortably.

2. Arrange

Now, it’s time to create homes for the new items. There may be plenty of space after you have edited, but if not, try some of these organizing tools that really help “create space”.
Organizing supplies. The goal is to make whatever you put away easy to find when you need it. There are three key principles to consider when storing items – keep them visible, accessible and manageable. The following products accomplish all three.

Pliio Clothing Management System
Pliio is the only line of organizing tools that help you fold your clothes and actually keep them folded. Clothes are folded around the tool which stays inside the garment. This allows you to store clothes vertically in drawers – making them visible, and with the structure inside the garment, they become as easy to manage as putting books on a shelf. Easy for any age to use, the line includes two sizes of Clothing Filers for tidy drawers, Clothing Pilers to tame the messiest shelves, and Storage Boxes designed to fit the filers.
www.pliio.com
Available at Bed, Bath and Beyond and Home Outfitters.

Clear, Plastic Shoe Boxes
Yes, they are fantastic for shoes, but clear shoe boxes are invaluable helpers in containing small items in almost any storage space in the home. Inexpensive, stackable and see-through they work in under-sink cabinets and on shelves keeping things easy to see and easy to manage. Use just the bottoms as drawer dividers. Examples of things you might store include: shoe care supplies, mini-toiletries, spices, light bulbs, and first aid.
Available at Home Depot.

Smead Stadium File Sorter
It’s easy for paper to pile up and soon you’ve the important in with the recycling. If out of sight is out of mind for you, consider this paper file sorter which has multiple compartments for letter-sized file folders each of which at its own level. This lets you see the name of each file. Store it on or near your desk, or on a kitchen counter, a common place for papers to collect.
Smead.com
Available at Amazon.ca.

Rubbermaid Modular Canisters
If kitchen cupboards are chaotic, consider replacing bags of dried goods with these stackable containers. They are designed to fit in upper cabinets and fill the space from front to back, so there will be no hidden row of forgotten items. Available in four different heights, stack them to fill your cabinet from top to bottom making the most of your storage space.
Rubbermaid Modular Canisters
Available at Walmart.ca.

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI, CALGARY HERALD

CALGARY – Calgary and Edmonton top the list of residential real estate investment markets in Alberta, according to a new report released Tuesday.

The new REIN (Real Estate Investment Network) Score measures each city or town on five different categories for a total of 50 points including: Economic Risk (possible 12 points); Yield Growth Potential (possible 12 points); Investors’ Insights (possible 10 points), Political Climate (possible 8 points), and Accessibility (possible 8 points).

Calgary and Edmonton topped the rankings with 50 points followed by Fort Saskatchewan (43), Airdrie (41), St. Albert (39), Red Deer (39), Lloydminster (38), Fort McMurray(36), Grande Prairie (36), and Leduc (34).

Melanie Reuter, director of research with REIN, said “the two most important criteria are the economic risk with a big focus on existing and future jobs and job growth, and the growth potential of yield. Will the going-rent rates mean your cashflow is good in relation to the house prices and is there potential for more and larger growth as the local economy improves?

“It is also important to take into consideration the political climate of a community and whether it has a solid growth plan, cashflow squashing taxes, and whether it has restrictive rental policies. If you can raise rents to match demand or your property taxes are expensive compared to other communities, your current and existing cashflow is compromised.”

Calgary received 12 out of 12 in the economic risk category, 10 out of 12 in yield growth potential, six of eight in local politics conducive to business, eight of eight in access to transportation and nine of 10 in investor’s insights.

The report said the formula of job creation creating an influx of people, leading to higher housing values is evident in Calgary.

“The market is hot! Real estate agents serving investors have noted that good inventory is very hard to come by,” said the report.

“The Calgary Real Estate Board believes that following a prolonged period of Calgary being a seller’s market, the city is once again beginning to move toward more balanced market conditions. Price gains will continue for every housing type, but at a more sustainable pace.”

According to CREB, as of Monday, year-to-date MLS sales in Calgary were 22,941, up 10.67 per cent from the same period a year ago. The median price has risen by 6.88 per cent to $427,500 while the average sale price has increased by 5.78 per cent to $483,115.

Canada’s Great East-West Migration, In One Chart

The Huffington Post Canada | By Daniel Tencer

The oilsands boom is reshaping Canada in many ways, and nowhere is this more obvious than where people are moving.

We’ve known for a long time that Canadians are flocking to Alberta for jobs, but a new chart from BMO shows just extreme the trend has become.

Atlantic Canada’s population is shrinking, while Alberta’s population growth is basically doubling the national average, BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes wrote in a client note Wednesday.

Reitzes found the trend is especially strong among working-age people (15 to 64), with Atlantic Canada losing more than one per cent of that group over the past year.

Those numbers put some context to all the news recently about that growing chasm in Canada’s economy: Alberta versus everyone else.

Take, for instance, Bloomberg’s projection that Alberta will overtake Quebec as the second-largest economy in Canada in some three years, despite having about half the population of Quebec.

Or the news that, in Canada’s moribund job market over the past year, Edmonton alone accounted for 40 per cent of job growth. Or this projection from BMO that Alberta could soon be building more new homes than all of Canada east of Ontario combined.

No wonder the country is headed to Alberta. We’ll get the old “last one out of the Maritimes turn out the lights” joke out of the way, and move right on to mentioning that this piling-into-Alberta trend may not last if oil prices keep sliding.

The International Energy Agency noted this week that about a quarter of new Canadian oil projects would be vulnerable if oil prices continued to decline.

And CIBC’s Benjamin Reitzes noted last week that investment in the oilsands — which have some of the highest production costs of any oil fields in the world — could drop off fast if oil prices fall below $80 U.S. Brent crude was trading at around $85 on Wednesday, down from around $115 earlier this year.

So if this bear market in oil prices continues, Alberta’s oil boom could come to a whimpering end. But for now, it’s far too early to call an end to the oil-driven economic miracle out west.

Calgary resale housing price growth highest in Canada

Sales in Canada’s resale housing market are approaching pre-recession highs seen in 2007, while rising prices in Calgary continue to outpace the nation – prompting an economist to warn the country’s hottest markets may be susceptible to a “shock.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported Monday that sales in August were up 1.8 per cent month over month, due to strong sales in major centres. It was the seventh consecutive month of growth for the country’s housing market.

“Although activity rose in fewer than half of all local housing markets in August, the national tally was fuelled by monthly sales increases in Greater Vancouver, Calgary and Greater Toronto,” said CREA.

Sales rose the most in Vancouver, up 10.3 per cent, at 2,820 units. Calgary sales were up 5.2 per cent, at 2,976 units. CREA’s data for Calgary includes the city’s surrounding areas.

Doug Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the overall level of sales in Canada is closing in on the pre-recession highs reached in 2007.

He said markets are balanced in most regions, but Alberta is an exception, “where sellers retain the upper hand over the ongoing tide of newcomers to the province.”

“Canada’s housing market remains healthy and well balanced overall, albeit with sizeable disparities across regions. The major potential flashpoint is that prices in the three hottest cities — Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver — are rising faster than family income, further straining affordability,” he said. “The continued rapid price gains in these cities will increase their vulnerability to a shock — whether economic, interest rate, or something else.

“The persistent strength in these cities is no doubt what prompted the Bank of Canada to stop talking about the inevitably of a soft landing for Canadian housing, and to suggest that the sector has been stronger than they expected. But we would reinforce the message that talk about the hot housing market is really only a three-city story.”

The CREA reported Monday that Calgary’s annual price growth of 9.83 per cent in the MLS Home Price Index was much steeper than the national aggregate of 5.33 per cent.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said listings and sales this spring were deferred due to unseasonably harsh weather, which subsequently supported activity once the delayed spring homebuying season got into gear.

“This trend was reinforced by a decline in mortgage interest rates,” he said.

“The boost from deferred sales is still expected to prove transitory. While national activity has yet to cool, sales were down from the previous month in the majority of Canada’s local markets, which may be early evidence that the transitory boost is fading. That said, low interest rates will continue to support housing affordability and sales activity.”

The national average price for homes sold in August was $398,618, up 5.3 per cent from the same month last year while the average in Calgary rose by 5.2 per cent to $454,994.

In Alberta, the average price rose by 4.2 per cent to $397,701 as sales were 3.8 per cent higher to 6,354 transactions.

A report by TD Economics said the obvious risk with a housing boom is that it may be fueled by unsustainable increases in debt. Despite rising housing activity, mortgage credit growth remains modest. This is largely a function of households paying back principal more aggressively than in the past, as well as moderation in home equity withdrawals, it said.

“There is, however, clear cause for caution. While households have moderated their credit growth, household debt remains near record highs,” wrote Brian DePratto, economist with TD Economics. “The ratio of household debt to disposable income reached 163.6 per cent in the second quarter, near the peak of 164.1 per cent seen in (third quarter of 2013).

“To sum up the current state of the housing market and household finances, it would appear that the party is still going, but households are nearing their limit. Real risks exist that bear close monitoring. Interest rates remain low, and their lure may prove too strong for households, fuelling a further acceleration in household debt. At the same time, net worth has been buoyed by gains in house prices, and a dramatic slowing, or even decline, in prices would have a damaging effect on net worth.”

The report said the housing party is likely to wind down in an orderly fashion. Rates can’t remain low forever, and TD expects a gradual rise as we approach 2015, leading to a natural deceleration in the demand for housing.

In an updated forecast also released Monday, CREA said sales nationally will reach 475,000 units in 2014, representing an annual increase of 3.8 per cent. Sales are expected to dip by 0.4 per cent in 2015 to 473,100 units.

CREA is forecasting Alberta sales to jump by 7.7 per cent to 71,200 transactions and 1.0 per cent to 71,900 units.

The average sale price in Alberta is forecast to rise by 5.0 per cent this year to $400,200 and by another 1.9 per cent next year to $408,000 while nationally the price will increase 5.9 per cent this year to $405,000 and by 0.7 per cent in 2015 to $407,900.

For the full article please visit http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+resale+housing+price+growth+highest+Canada/10204823/story.html

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Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary among top five most livable cities in new ranking

LONDON — Reuters